The London Times summed it up well in their Monday edition:“Voters Take Revenge  for War”. Although the immediate cause of the victory of the PSOE and the defeat of the Popular Party was the attempt by Aznar’s government to manipulate public opinion in the rush to condemn ETA for the terrorist attack, the background was mass opposition to the war.

Spain was one of three major European countries (together with Italy and Britain) which supported the US in the Iraq war despite majority, or periodic majority, opposition. In Spain the anti-war demonstrations were bigger than anywhere else in the world.

Aznar’s attempt to foist the blame for the Madrid massacre on ETA was crass; this is explained in detail in the G. Buster article posted on the front page of this site. Probably they were panicked by the fear of what people would think if the bombers were al-Qaida – that the war has increased the likelihood of terrorism, a fact which is absolutely obvious, and was predicted by someone as unradical as Tory MP Kenneth Clarke in the pre-war Commons debate.

Now the PP’s defeat has thrown the war coalition into crisis, especially after the announcement by prime minister-elect Zapateros that Spain will withdraw its forces from Iraq, and his statement that the Iraq war was based on lies.

The strict translation of PSOE may be the “Spanish Socialist Workers Party”, but the politics of this formation have long since been in any way radical. The militant left, mainly grouped in the Izquierda Unida (United Left, IU), calls the PSOE ‘social liberals’ –ie politically neoliberal. Nonetheless the PSOE victory is a blow to Bush and Blair. Not only does it throw the war coalition into turmoil, it potentially transforms the relationship of forces within the European Union, undermining the pro-US position, and reinforcing the German-French axis.

The IU vote unfortunately dropped from around 5.8% last time to 4.96% this time, a fall or less than a hundred thousand voters out of 1.3 million, which because of the peculiarities which electoral arithmetic always throws up, was punished disproportionately with a fall in the number of IU deputies from 9 to 5.

This is undoubtedly a blow for IU; part of the reason was probably a squeeze effect, with anti-Aznar people wanting a vote which would more safely eject the right for government. Even proportional representation cannot entirely eliminate such an effect in a highly polarised election.

However, it is disappointing that the huge anti-war mobilisations have not been translated into a strengthening of the radical left at an electoral level. It is an important matter for socialists to analyse and explain. We will see whether this happens in other European elections as well; next Sunday sees the regional elections in France, where the joint Communist League-Workers Struggle list has built a forceful campaign.

In the not-too-distant future, Berlusconi faces re-election in Italy. And of course we have the European elections, where the majority of the militant left in England will back Respect-the Unity Coalition.

For the moment the main thing is that the pro-war coalition has been struck a heavy blow. Who said that mass movements never affect anything? For sure the worldwide anti-war movement, and its giant Spanish component, set the political tone on the war which was the background to the PP’s defeat.

* We hope to publish a more detailed analysis by the Espacio Alternativa current of the IU in the near future.